Analyzing the Deficit and Debt with Online Tools and AI

On December 21, 2025, Margaret Brennan interviewed the White House National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, on "Face the Nation". According to this transcript, it included the following exchange:

MARGARET BRENNAN: Let me ask you a bit about tariffs. Since as far back as July, we have heard the president refer to this idea of $2,000 checks being given out to households. The Treasury secretary said this would go to households making less than $100,000. Should Americans plan to receive those checks in 2026?

HASSETT: That's going to depend on what happens with Congress. Congress is going to have to send those money to those peoples. But the thing we can say is that since July, we've had a lot of positive news about the economy. We've had a couple of quarters of almost 4% growth. We've got a big government surplus actually running for a few months in a row. The deficit relative to last year, is down by $600 billion and so in the summer, I wasn't so sure that there was space for a check like that, but now I'm pretty sure that there is, and so I would expect that in the new year, the President will bring forth a proposal to Congress to make that happen.

Hassett's statement about us having a "big government surplus actually running for a few months in a row" can be checked via the following steps:

  1. Go to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
  2. In the search box that contains "Search FRED Data...", enter the word deficit and click on the magnifying glass.
  3. Click on the first selection of "Federal Surplus or Deficit [-]" which will go to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS
  4. Above the date selector above the graph, click on 1Y to set the range of the graph to 1 year.
  5. Click the Download button above the graph and the select "Image (graph)". This will download the following image:

  6. Click the Download button above the graph and the select "CSV (data)" or "Excel (data)". This will download a file containing the the following numbers: 
     date    MTSDS133FMS
12/1/2024   -86,731.61901
 1/1/2025  -128,640.2067
 2/1/2025  -307,017.1947
 3/1/2025  -160,530.3215
 4/1/2025   258,399.9491
 5/1/2025  -316,003.7612
 6/1/2025    27,010.02208
 7/1/2025  -291,142.6603
 8/1/2025  -344,791.8919
 9/1/2025   197,949.6304
10/1/2025  -284,350.0508
11/1/2025  -173,277.1751
12/1/2025  -144,749.2356
As can be seen, the U.S. government ran a surplus in only 3 months in the past year - April, June, and September. These are the same months in which quarterly taxes are paid, the fourth month being January. As none of these months are "in a row", Hassett is obviously wrong that the U.S. has "a big government surplus actually running for a few months in a row".

In addition, Hassett's statement that "the deficit relative to last year, is down by $600 billion" can be checked via the following steps:

  1. Go to https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
  2. Click on the Chart tab
  3. Hover the cursor along the top line at the vertical line at 2024, 2025, and 2026, taking a screenshot (Alt-Print Screen) at each year.
This should create the following 3 screenshots:

As can be seen, the cumulative deficit (the debt) increased by $2.18 trillion ($36.17 trillion - $33.99 trillion) in 2024 but a slightly larger $2.25 trillion ($38.42 trillion - $36.17 trillion) in 2025. Hence, the $600 billion figure is very much false judging from the total public debt outstanding. However, there are alternative measures of the deficit. In any event, the accuracy of such statements can be quickly estimated by asking ChatGPT or another AI assistant a carefully worded question like the following:

On December 21, 2005 Kevin Hassett said "We've got a big government surplus actually running for a few months in a row. The deficit relative to last year, is down by $600 billion". How accurate is that statement? Please output the reply in raw HTML.

This question resulted in the following reply from ChatGPT:

On December 21, 2025, Kevin Hassett was quoted saying:

“We've got a big government surplus actually running for a few months in a row. The deficit relative to last year is down by $600 billion.”

This statement contains two parts — one about a “surplus running for a few months” and another about a “$600 billion” reduction in the deficit. Here’s how accurate those claims are based on official budget data and analyses:

1. “Big government surplus running for a few months in a row”

Official U.S. government budget data show that the United States has continued to run overall budget deficits through fiscal 2025 — not sustained surpluses. For example, the Treasury reports a consolidated federal budget deficit of about $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025.

It is true that on a monthly cash basis, occasional months (such as September 2025) posted surpluses because revenues exceeded outlays for that month. These monthly “surpluses” are timing results of receipts and payments and do not indicate an overall multi-month or annual surplus.

Conclusion: Claiming a “big government surplus running for a few months in a row” is misleading — it refers to isolated monthly cash accounting, not sustained government surplus in the comprehensive budgetary sense.

2. “Deficit relative to last year is down by $600 billion”

Government budget data and independent analyses show that the overall federal deficit in fiscal year 2025 was modestly lower than in 2024, but the reduction was far smaller than the $600 billion figure. For example, the Treasury and budget analysts estimate the fiscal 2025 deficit at about $1.8 trillion — only about $40–50 billion lower than the roughly $1.8+ trillion deficit in fiscal 2024.

While some internal projections, partisan commentary, or short-term year-to-date comparisons might suggest larger changes in certain periods, the official annual budget totals do not support a near-$600 billion reduction year-over-year. Independent analysts have noted that the “$600 billion” claim is not backed by the underlying data and appears to reflect selective or non-standard comparisons rather than the standard annual deficit figures.}

Conclusion: The “$600 billion” reduction claim is not supported by the official annual budget deficit data and is a substantial overstatement in that context.

Overall Accuracy

  • The statement on sustained surpluses is misleading because the U.S. has continued to run significant overall deficits, even if some months show temporary cash surpluses.
  • The claim of a $600 billion year-over-year deficit reduction significantly overstates the actual change measured by official deficit data.

Summary: Both parts of Hassett’s statement are inaccurate or misleading when judged against standard federal budget and deficit accounting.

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